Wall Street is bracing for Tesla to report a drop in first-quarter vehicle deliveries on Wednesday, but analysts and investors cannot agree on how bad the decline would be.
An average of 15 analysts who lowered their forecasts in the past 30 days expect deliveries to drop 3.7%, according to Visible Alpha, but some analysts and investors termed it conservative and predicted as much as 12% slide.
CEO Elon Musk has pledged a return to growth after Tesla’s annual deliveries dipped last year, but waning demand for its aging line up of electric vehicles and a backlash against his political stance could make that promise a hard one to keep.
Musk’s advisory role to U.S. President Donald Trump, through which he has been instrumental in firing thousands of federal workers and cutting humanitarian aid, has sparked discontent among some customers.
Protests at Tesla stores in the U.S. and Europe have spiked, and Tesla cars are being vandalized. Some data indicates a rise in Tesla owners trading in their vehicles.
Investors are waiting to see if refreshed models like the Model Y and incentives have helped counter weak demand and tough race from Chinese rivals including BYD and European competitors such as Volkswagen and BMW .
Tesla’s sales in key European markets fell again in March, with sales in France and Sweden dropping for a third straight month.
Tesla began offering the refreshed Model Y, featuring updated styling and enhanced interiors, in China late February and in the U.S. and Europe last month.
Data from auto industry associations and analyst estimates point to notable declines in Tesla sales during the first two months of the year in the U.S., Europe, and China.
Analysts expect Tesla to report deliveries of about 372,410 vehicles for the January-March period, down from 386,810 vehicles a year ago.
Tesla has indicated plans to launch a lower-priced model based on its existing platform this year, but is yet to release specific details about the vehicle.
Its pricey Cybertruck pickup, launched in late 2023, has seen limited demand due to its polarizing trapezoidal design and quality concerns. Tesla recently recalled nearly all Cybertrucks to address a potential exterior panel issue.
While Tesla may see less pain from the new 25% tariffs on imported vehicles due to its U.S.-based manufacturing, Musk has said cost implications are “significant”. Tesla has also warned about potential retaliatory tariffs in response to the levies.
